Load Research & Forecasting

power_lines_over_field-narrowAccurate, comprehensive load forecasts are critical if energy utilities are to make the right investments to meet future demand for electricity or natural gas. Utilities need to know:

  • The types of customers driving increases in demand
  • How to meet customer needs and better manage growth
  • How demand-response and energy-efficiency activities will affect future loads
  • How new building codes and equipment standards will affect load growth
  • What effect new technologies, such as plug-in electric vehicles, will have on energy sales and system load shapes
  • Where to expect load growth in the distribution system

Cadmus provides state-of-the-art analytical and software solutions to some of the toughest challenges facing the utility industry today.

Our End Use Forecaster focuses on individual market segments: residential, commercial, and industrial. It can accommodate multiple geographic areas, fuels, market sectors, and end uses consistent with any market segmentation strategy.

The End Use Forecaster also estimates the potential technical, economic, and achievable savings from demand-side management (DSM) programs. It models DSM programs targeted at new or existing construction according to the behavioral, economic and physical characteristics and parameters in a reference case forecast. DSM impact estimates are fully internalized and available by subtracting one forecast scenario from another.

Our innovative Multidimensional Forecasting (MDF) approach uses traditional top-down econometric load and sophisticated forecasting techniques to quickly address thousands of related yet disaggregated data series. The result is a series of accurate, rich, multidimensional forecasts that can be used in system and distribution planning, customer marketing and financial forecasting.

Our peak demand forecasting enables utilities to address the most challenging forecasting questions, such as:

  • How do the timing and magnitude of extreme weather events influence customer demand?
  • Are better measures available than the traditional concept of “normal weather?”
  • Is the distribution of possible revenues symmetric, or is their greater risk—or reward—at one extreme of the possible outcomes?

 

Ontario Power Authority

The Ontario Power Authority relies on Cadmus’ End Use Forecaster to provide the backbone for its electric resource planning. Forecast scenarios let the utility investigate, in a fully integrated modeling environment, a wide variety of issues—economic and price volatility, demand-side management programs, carbon taxes, and more—and their effect on future loads and resource requirements.

 

Oklahoma Gas & Electric Company
For more than a decade, Cadmus has served as the energy and peak demand forecasting department for the Oklahoma Gas & Electric Company. We provide state- and class-specific energy and consumer forecasting models based on monthly econometric models and micro-level energy and customer forecasts from our Multidimensional Modeling capability.